La résilience aux crises : une évaluation par l’indice d’espace politique revisité

Revue d'économie du développement, 2026/2-3 Vol. 34, p.57-96ю

This paper revisits and updates the Policy Space Index (PSI), originally developed by
Ferrer and Kireyev (2023), to assess countries’ short-term macroeconomic capacity to
respond to economic shocks. The PSI integrates fiscal space, monetary space, and
reserve adequacy into a unified metric expressed as a percentage of GDP, adjusted for
institutional characteristics including exchange rate regimes, capital market access,
debt distress risk, and reserve currency status. Drawing on publicly available databases,
this update provides a comprehensive cross-country assessment of effective policy space
in 2024 and tracks its recent evolution. The analysis reveals a stark global divide: While
90 countries representing 70% of global GDP retain sufficient space for immediate
crisis response, 91 countries—home to half the world’s population—have limited or no
policy space and would likely require external support during a crisis. The update
documents a concerning global decline of 15% of GDP in nominal policy space over
2020-2024, driven primarily by rising public debt.